The fifth China International PhotovoltaicIndustry Summit Forum was held in Chengdu with the theme of "anchoring thedual carbon goals to empower a green future". Colleagues talk freely aboutwhere the photovoltaic industry is heading.

Cao Renxian, chairman of the ChinaPhotovoltaic Industry Association, stated at the forum that while thephotovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, it is also facing some problems,such as mismatching production and demand in the supply chain, and consumption.The photovoltaic industry should quickly return to the channel of promotingcost reduction and efficiency enhancement through technological innovation,avoid ineffective fierce competition, ensure high-quality development of thephotovoltaic industry, and accelerate the construction of new batteries thatemphasize both photovoltaic and energy storage.

In the "Leaders Dialogue" sectionof the forum, entrepreneurs, scholars, and industry association leaders fromupstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry had a fierce collision ofviews on the current situation and future prospects of the industry.

1. "Excessive investment is bound tolead to overcapacity in the future"

The current industry presents three majortrends and characteristics:①phased capacity expansion of polysilicon;②Whileexpanding production capacity, the industrial chain extends in depth to theupper and lower reaches;③The layout of the industrial chain is concentrated in regions richin renewable energy, such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan.Currently, overheated industrial investment is bound to lead to periodicovercapacity in the short term in the future, and will lead to more intensemarket competition. Enterprises need to do a good job in internal skills,improve efficiency and value-added, and further reduce costs.

2. "Capital differentiation leads tosevere internalization"

"Every industry has a cycle." Thephotovoltaic industry is currently in an era of capital differentiation, withinsufficient technological content, and technological differentiation andbarriers have not been formed. Therefore, capital differentiation has led to arelatively severe competition. In the next decade, the photovoltaic industrywill generate technological differentiation and form technical barriers.Everyone believes that photovoltaic technology is relatively simple, mainly inmodules and inverters. Looking ahead, the future technological value will bereflected in four aspects:①N-type battery;②Energy storage;③Diversified application scenarios of photovoltaic products;④Intelligenceand digitization of the industry.

3. "The next two to three years willusher in a period of sedimentation and turbulence."

In the past decade or so, the developmentof the new energy industry has experienced ups and downs, which also warns thatsome situations in the industry are a bit "hot" and a bit"excessive". It is expected that within the next two to three years,the industry will usher in a period of sedimentation and turbulence. Here aresome suggestions:①Rational competition;② Return to technological innovation;③Inclusivedevelopment.

The prospects for the "dualcarbon" goal are very good, allowing for the common development of allcolleagues in the new energy industry. Therefore, in this process, it isnecessary to avoid unfair competition, even vicious competition. Of course, weshould encourage market-oriented competition.

4."There may be overcapacity orhomogeneous competition in some links."

On the one hand, the global productionlayout is turning to localization and nearshore production, and thecharacteristic of "localization" is very obvious. Chinesephotovoltaic enterprises should be vigilant against various trade barriers whenentering the international market. On the other hand, when focusing on thedomestic market, in the past year and a half, there have been more than 300photovoltaic award-winning projects. During this process, we will definitelysee that there may be overcapacity or homogeneous competition in some links,and we should be particularly careful.

The photovoltaic industry seems toencounter an industry cycle every five years, from 2008, 2013, 2018, untiltoday, the characteristics of this cycle are supply chain matching, supply anddemand balance issues, and I hope that all photovoltaic colleagues can safelytraverse this industry cycle.

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